Loving This Conference Championship Week Parlay

Alright … I might hate myself come Saturday night for doing this, but I want to advocate a parlay. Normally I advise against them. The last time I endorsed a parlay was a 3-team play in Week 6 of the NFL season which I came tantalizingly close to winning.

Before getting started, I’ll provide a disclaimer: Parlays are -EV bets.

If you hit a parlay it will pay off big time. I’m going to string together 3 favorites this weekend and will hopefully walk away with something to show for it.

Game #1: Big 12 Championship – Texas (+250) vs Oklahoma (-300)

These two powerhouses squared off on October 6 with Texas eeking out a 3-point victory in a back-and-forth thriller. The two now rematch 8 weeks later with the Big 12 Championship on the line.

What has changed in those 8 weeks? The Sooners are now playing like a playoff team.

Oklahoma Since Losing to Texas

The loss on October 6 seems to have lit a fire under the Sooners. Oklahoma has since won 6 straight, led by the play of their sensational junior quarterback Kyler Murray.

Check out how many combined passing and rushing yards Murray has accumulated this year.

Week	Opponent	Total Yds	OU Points	Result
1	FAU	232	63	W
2	UCLA	375	49	W
3	ISU	425	37	W
4	ARMY	236	28	W
5	BAY	477	66	W
6	UT	396	45	L
7	BYE	—	—	—
8	TCU	264	52	W
9	KSU	398	51	W
10	TTU	460	51	W
11	OSU	415	48	W
12	KAN	371	55	W
13	WVU	478	59	W
Total		377.3	50.3	11-1
Before BYE		356.8	48	5-1
After BYE		397.7	52.7	6-0

The Sooners’ bye week could not have come at a better time. Oklahoma was extremely inconsistent over their first 6 games; with a poor offensive showing against Iowa State, a near loss to Army, and a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of their arch rivals.

After the bye, Oklahoma is executing their gameplan to a T. Murray has been phenomenal and the Sooner offense has been a well-oiled machine, scoring between 48-59 points in each game.

It took 48 for UT to win last time – a number the Longhorns’ offense has not put up again all season. It will take at least 48 to beat Oklahoma a second time.

Texas is struggling and is very lucky to be 9-3 and have a shot at the Big 12 crown.

No way Texas beats the Sooners twice in one season. Oklahoma wins all day!

Game #2: B10 Championship – N’Western (+475) vs Ohio St (-750)

Last Saturday served as a wake-up call for those who did not think Ohio State deserved to play for a Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes are the clear favorites, but can Northwestern hang around and give themselves a shot to win?

The Best Pests in the Nation

Northwestern is a handicappers’ dream. Each of their games have been close; the most lopsided being an early, non-conference 14-point loss to Duke.

Week	Opponent	Result, Score
1	PUR	W, 31-27
2	DUKE	L, 21-7
3	AKR	L, 39-34
4	BYE	—
5	UM	L, 20-17
6	MSU	W, 29-19
7	NEB	W, 34-31
8	RUT	W, 18-15
9	WISC	W, 31-17
10	ND	L, 31-21
11	IOWA	W, 14-10
12	MINN	W, 24-14
13	ILLI	W, 24-16
Total		8-4

No matter the opponent, Northwestern sticks around and the game remains close. They seem incapable of blowing opponents out, but they also refuse to be blown out.

Cellar dweller Rutgers? A 3-point win. 4-7 Illinois? A one-touchdown victory.

These close games against bad teams make the Wildcats look very weak. Just when you are ready to count them out, they then play an elite team close.

Top-10 Michigan? A narrow, 3-point loss. Playoff-bound Notre Dame? A mere 10-point defeat.

Will the game remain close? Maybe. I do not care about the point spread, however. I love Ohio State to win SU given that the Buckeyes are playing like the class of the B10.

Game #3: SEC Championship – Georgia (+400) vs Alabama (-600)

I like Alabama because they are Alabama and Georgia is not … ‘nuff said.

But seriously, read this to see how much I respect Saban’s team this year.

Could Georgia win? I suppose so, but do you want to be the one to bet against Bama? Unless you have insider information that Saban is throwing the game, I’d say the Crimson Tide are the smart bet.

Potential Parlay Payout

Bet	Odds
OU Moneyline	-300
OHST Moneyline	-750
BAMA Moneyline	-600
Parlay	-131.1

The beauty of the parlay is we can get -131.1 odds if we combine the 3 favorites and avoid laying the ludacris odds we’d face if we bet them individually.

You know where my money will be this Saturday. I’ll see you on the top!