Which Quarterbacks Are Most Turnover Prone?

Turnovers are tough to handicap when it comes to NFL betting. Some of them are the product of long-term issues, while others can be attributed to other things that are nearly impossible to predict. But knowing which quarterbacks are the most prone to turning the ball over is important when it comes to getting ready to place your NFL bets.

Through seven games in 2018, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has the most interceptions in the NFL with 10 picks thrown. He is the only quarterback in the league to hit double-digit interceptions through seven games on the season. This was expected heading into the season, as Darnold was prone to plenty of turnovers when he was at USC during his college career as well. Without a big gulf between the perception of Darnold heading into his career and the reality of his play, there may not be much value to be gained in keeping an eye on his turnover numbers with them being this high.

Behind Darnold is Case Keenum of the Denver Broncos. Keenum has been an interesting case, no pun intended, this season. He came in with high expectations due to his spectacular season that he had last year as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. But he has been turnover prone and hasn’t been as explosive as a quarterback commanding his salary should be. This created a nice window for bettors early in the season to go against the Broncos and reap the benefits of Keenum failing to live up to the projections for him before the season.

Then you have a tie for third place, with Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr all having thrown eight picks through seven games. For Dalton, Luck, and Carr, expectations were high this season as they are thought to be some of the best quarterbacks in the game. This has created value for bettors looking to wager against them, similar to what we have seen with Keenum.

But Blake Bortles has gone another route, exceeding expectations early in the season, before cratering after that. This created strong value in backing Bortles early on, before that value dissipated completely as the season wore on, creating uncertainty as to how well the Jaguars will do over the course of the season as a whole.

When it comes to turnovers, you have to remember the importance of context, especially when it comes to quarterbacks. Because there is a huge difference between quarterbacks who make a bad read and quarterbacks who throw interceptions that are deflected off of the hands of their wide receivers. You don’t necessarily need to watch film to know how every quarterback turnover plays out, but doing some reading to find out before judging a quarterback based on their turnovers is important.

There are quarterbacks who are thought of as bad who don’t give the ball away too often through interceptions or fumbles, and they could be underrated quarterbacks depending on how much their ability to hold onto the ball relates to the perception around them.